Black, white, mixed, and Yugoslavian
Black, white, mixed, and Yugoslavian
Plus, NBA 2024-25 preview
Many years ago, Thomas Sowell wrote several excellent books discussing the seemingly odd way that particular ethnic groups dominate certain professions in various parts of the world. Today, I’ll discuss the unusual demographics of the National Basketball Association (for my non-sports fan readers) and then a few comments on the upcoming NBA season (for sports fans.)
When I began watching the NBA back in the late 1960s, the league was dominated by African-American athletes, with a significant minority of white Americans. Today, the role of white Americans is even smaller, while the role of foreign athletes (mostly Europeans, and to a lesser extent Africans) has risen sharply. Here is one area where “immigrants are stealing our jobs”.
Non-sports fans probably have a vague impression that blacks are much better at basketball, perhaps because they are taller. I’m not sure that‘s accurate. NBA players are many standard deviations above the average in terms of talent, so even a strong imbalance at the top end might reflect only a small advantage at the mean. And while I found it difficult to get good data on average height by race and ethnicity, the data I did find suggested little height difference between white and black Americans.
Serious NBA fans know that there is a notable difference between white and black NBA players, but it’s not primarily about height. Indeed I suspect the white NBA players are slightly taller, on average. Instead, the difference seems to be related to what’s called “athleticism.” While the white players are talented athletes compared to you or me, then can seem a bit “plodding” next to the more explosive black players.
Some sports emphasize the use of legs, notably football (American soccer). In other cases, such as a baseball pitcher, the arm is most important. (That’s not to say pitchers don’t also use their legs, just that the key to success is a great arm.) Basketball is more of a mixed bag, with both arms and legs being quite important. You can tell a nice story about the black dominance of NBA basketball by focusing on the greater athleticism of black players in terms of quickly starting and stopping, changing directions, jumping, etc. Skills where the legs are relatively important. On the other hand (AFAIK) international football is not dominated by black players to the same extent as basketball, so perhaps there’s something else going on.
In recent decades, the simple black and white story has become much more complex. There has been a steady increase in the number of “international players” in the NBA. Many of these international players fall into one of four categories; whites from former Yugoslavia, other European whites, European blacks, and Africans. (Canadians and Australians might be included in the general European category, again with a mix of whites and blacks.)
And to make things even more complicated, there’s been a big increase in the number of what I’ll call “mixed race” basketball players. Yes, I understand that almost all humans are mixed race in a sense, and that many Americans have both white and black ancestry. Here I mean something more specific, athletes with one white and one black parent. In recent years, mixed race NBA players have become especially notable in the “shooter” category, which you can think of as players with very good arms.
The Golden State Warriors had two great shooters in Klay Thompson and Steph Curry, with the latter being the best shooter in NBA history. Both had black fathers who once played in the NBA. I suspect that we are seeing more mixed race athletes because we have more interracial marriages than in previous decades. So I am not particularly surprised to see more of this group in the NBA. But I am a bit surprised at the extent to which they dominate in the specific skill of being a great shooter. (NBA fans can probably think many more examples of excellent mixed race shooters.)
Similarly, while I’m not all that surprised by the increasing role of international players in the NBA, I am quite surprised to see so many NBA players from former Yugoslavia—including two of the top five players in the league. There are so many from this region that NBA commentators sometimes joke that if the name ends with “vic” or “vitch” you know he’s a good shooter. Yes, former Yugoslavia is now made up of 6 or 7 countries, but the entire region comprises only 23 million people, not much more than the Netherlands. What’s going on?
Once again, it’s hard to make a definitive judgement about the role of player size. The data on average height in Europe is all over the place, but it does seem like Yugoslavians are a bit taller than average. On the other hand, it does not seem like they are anywhere near tall enough to explain their unusual success in the NBA, particularly since other Nordic and Germanic countries also have men of above average height. So the data doesn’t seem unambiguous enough to either completely accept or reject a height based explanation.
If the dominance of black American athletes in the NBA nudges you toward an explanation focusing on how race might confer some sort of physical advantage, then the odd success of Yugoslavians points back toward a “cultural” explanation. Which reminds me of the “Why not both?” meme.
The picture gets even more complicated when we examine European athletes from a racial perspective. The many Yugoslavians that have played in the NBA are almost all white. But among non-Yugoslavian Europeans, black basketball stars are becoming almost as dominant as in the US. The best young NBA player is a black from France who was picked number one in the 2023 draft, and the top two picks in 2024 were both blacks from France.
Obviously, Europe has a considerably smaller black population than the US. In addition, many European blacks are fairly recent immigrants. If a high level of skill at sports makes it easier to immigrate to Europe (or Canada or Australia) then this might explain the recent surge in black NBA talent coming out of those regions. Some of the recent stars are second generation basketball professionals.
NBA basketball is a ruthless meritocracy. Even slight differences in ability can become very important at the highest levels of competition. As the world gets more globalized and different ethnic groups migrate to new countries and intermarry with other races, we can expect an increasing complicated ethnic mixture. We can also expect an increasing number of successful athletes to have parents that were successful athletes.
Part 2: NBA preview
I’ve noticed that NBA basketball is more popular among intellectuals than among the general public. Why is that?
I certainly know why I like the NBA. The sport has more “flow” than American football and baseball, and the player’s athleticism is easier to appreciate than in hockey (at least for me). Perhaps international football is better; I haven’t followed that sport.
The NBA needs to tweak some rules. Fouls on three point shots should result in only two free throws. The current practice of granting three free throws is embarrassingly innumerate, betraying a lack of understanding of what free throws are for. They should also try to reduce the stoppages in action. Only whistle a kicked ball when the ball is actually kicked, not every time it randomly hits a foot. Play on when there’s a wedgie. Don’t call a jump ball so quickly. I don’t like the three point shot, but that’s a lost cause.
Other observations:
It seems to me that teams focus too much on “fit”. Portland drafted Sam Bowie over Jordan based on fit. Just get good players. Dallas traded away Jalen Brunson based on fit. There would have been nothing wrong with Luka and Jalen each playing point for 24 minutes, two guard for 12 minutes, and resting for 12 minutes. It would keep them fresher. That decision might eventually cost Dallas a title.
Aging super-teams typically don’t do well. Last year’s Suns and Clippers were examples.
I see that LeBron has finally edged ahead of Jordan in the GOAT rankings, although Jordan remains number one in terms of performance at his peak. In a previous post I pointed out that talent and greatness are two different things. Based on my discussion at the top of this post, you can probably guess that I believe the talent level in the NBA is far, far above the level when I first started watching. Many if not most of the most talented players ever are playing right now. That means current players are underrated.
My team (the Bucks) is deservedly underrated. They are underrated because they have perhaps the league’s best big three. They deserve their low ranking due to being bounced out in the first round each of the two previous seasons.
I believe that Giannis is underrated because his skill is so unusual, hard to put into a standard box. He’s the only guy to score over 30/game while shooting over 60% (actually over 61%), and yet he’s viewed as a bad shooter. He’s neither a Shaq-type low post scorer nor a Curry-like outside shooter. You might say he’s a 6’11’’ Russell Westbrook. His handle, agility and explosiveness allows him to get to the rim, and his size allows him to score when he does get there. I say he’s underrated because he combined an all-time great offensive season with being a good passer, an outstanding rebounder and a great defensive player.
The other underrated Buck is Middleton, who is not the most exciting player to watch. Casual NBA fans would rate Paul George higher, but in the last 5 minutes of a playoff game you’d rather the ball be in Middleton’s hands. He’s extremely efficient at the type of shot that you need to make in crunch time. And he’s a smart, talented all-around player. He’s had far more playoff success than PG.
Damian Lillard is correctly rated as a poor man’s Curry. But when combined with Giannis and Middleton, I’d take that three over any other trio in the league, although Boston is close, and of course has a far better “big 5”.
Unlike most NBA fans, I prefer the regular season over the playoffs. More games, and the experience of watching is less stressful. The Bucks have provided me with lots of great regular season action over the past 6 years:
In lifetime utility terms, what matters most is not NBA titles, it’s the flow of enjoyment from watching 82 regular season games. Go Bucks!
Scott, a good book to read is "The Sports Gene" by David Epstein. He discusses a lot of the genetic issues related to top performance in various sports. One thing you did get a "bit" wrong was the comment on baseball pitchers need for a great arm. The biomechanics of pitching involve the whole body and those pitchers who do not have good biomechanics end up with arm problems early in their career. I remember seeing former Reds pitch Don Gullett in the early 1970s while I was in grad school at Indiana. His pitching motion was almost all arm with very little lower body support. HIs career ended early. Contrast this to both Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan who had almost perfect whole body biomechanics and had very long careers with relatively few injury problems. I audited Doc Counselman's biomechanics course at Indiana (he was the preeminent swimming coach at the time and had a number of world class swimmers at IU; I asked him about pitchers and he was in general agreement even though it was not his sport).
With respect to basketball, there is also the intangible mental aspect which distinguishes outstanding players from run of the mill ones. Lots of players have the innate physical skills to succeed but they lack court awareness and the ability to visualize the game in real time. The same can be said about the greatest hockey player of all time, Wayne Gretzky, who was not the most physically gifted but had game anticipation that was far greater than any other player. Many of the Serbian basketball players also have this as does Luka Doncic. Larry Bird is another good example here. This aspect of the game cannot be measured in the same way reflex action or vertical jump can but only observed in game conditions.
Soccer tends to be dominated by people who grow up in specific places that have really deep knowledge of soccer, or places close enough to the core soccer countries that talent there gets recognized early. So there isn’t really a clear racial component to it, except that people living Europe and South America are over represented, so people with European and African ancestry are over represented. My own personal opinion is that at the highest levels, every position in soccer requires the kinds of skills that quarterbacks have, and differences in effectiveness of players are as much about their ability to read and react to the game as it is about their ability to run, dribble, or kick the ball (though there are some players that are notably good at dribbling or being incredibly precise with their passing.) Take DeBruyne as an example. I don’t think that he is exceptional at dribbling, shooting, or in his ability to pass the ball very precisely. He is just really good at recognizing when and where to pass the ball, and that makes him one of the best players right now. Jokic seems to me to play basketball that way. He doesn’t look very fast or athletic, he just seems to be able to get himself in a position to shoot high percentage shots or make an assist. My guess is that Europe, over time, becomes even more significant for basketball, as they take what they know about teaching kids how to play soccer and apply that to basketball, and that knowledge starts to reach a critical mass where even people not connected to the higher levels of the sport know a great ball about how to play the game and teach that to the equivalent of players on a local high school basketball team.