Seems like India is on an upswing. I wonder if with AI, India's GDP expansion will accelerate.
Then perhaps AI-robotization will allow China to keep growing rapidly, even with a declining labor pop. After all, we are already to, or very near, the point where truck and taxi drivers are no longer essential. Warehousing becoming automated.
Verily, the future is over the horizon that I may not last to see.
Side note: Better EVs, with small, very powerful motors, and superior batteries, are also on the cusp.
Though in a way, its just as hard to "predict"(postdict?) the past. The further back in time we look, the less informed our guesses about what happened become.
It mostly reflects India's relative poverty. Note that the poorest Indian states (such as Bihar) have the highest fertility. Globally, income differences explain most of the difference in fertility (but not all, as we see with Israel.)
East Asia seems to have a surprisingly low fertility even adjusting for income. It presumably reflects cultural differences as well.
India's fertility is declining, and I'd expect it to continue to decline.
Theres more going on with humans than just eating and screwing. Toys, for instance. The wealthier we are the better our toys, the more time we spend with those. Birth control for another. Mental disturbances for another. And as scott pointed out, culture. Im sure theres plenty more for this list.
Im no social scientist but i can see how some or all of these would affect the birth rate of a given society. It does seem counterintuitive on the face of it, but isnt that a hallmark of humanity?
Interesting reflections. Your prediction seems entirely plausible. Should we however assess the weights of countries in the world economy based on PPPs? If a haircut in India costs a small fraction of a haircut in the US this surely affects the relative standard of living in the two countries, but what impact does it have on the countries’ relative economic power? (I am implicitly assuming that differences in PPPs come principally from differences in the price of tradable goods. I would make a big exception for military goods, which are morphologically tradable but politically not so: Russia has a huge revealed comparative advantage in military goods but my advocacy of free trade stop short of proposing that we should all fight all wars with Russian weapons (moreover it turns out that Ukraine has even more favourable PPPs)).
Economic power is a rather vague concept, so it's hard to say. I will says that China's PPP figures more accurately describe the current impact of China on the global economy than it's nominal GDP, especially industries such as commodities, autos and AI.
As far as military power is concerned, it does seem possible that the nominal figures are more revealing.
Important point about commodities markets that I cannot ever recall reading before. I'd never begrudge a countries living standards rising,, but it does raise costs to other buyers.
Ironically, people often claimed that China reduced US inflation, by making manufactured goods cheaper. I do recall a period around 2007-08, and then again 2011, when Chinese commodity demand did seem to raise the headline inflation rate.
Seems like India is on an upswing. I wonder if with AI, India's GDP expansion will accelerate.
Then perhaps AI-robotization will allow China to keep growing rapidly, even with a declining labor pop. After all, we are already to, or very near, the point where truck and taxi drivers are no longer essential. Warehousing becoming automated.
Verily, the future is over the horizon that I may not last to see.
Side note: Better EVs, with small, very powerful motors, and superior batteries, are also on the cusp.
“It is difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future.”
Though in a way, its just as hard to "predict"(postdict?) the past. The further back in time we look, the less informed our guesses about what happened become.
I wonder why india is so much more fertile than china..?
It mostly reflects India's relative poverty. Note that the poorest Indian states (such as Bihar) have the highest fertility. Globally, income differences explain most of the difference in fertility (but not all, as we see with Israel.)
East Asia seems to have a surprisingly low fertility even adjusting for income. It presumably reflects cultural differences as well.
India's fertility is declining, and I'd expect it to continue to decline.
Globally, income differences explain most of the difference in fertility
Kind of like a built in "check", perhaps. But yeah that makes sense.
Do they really?
How does the chain of causation go from higher income to lower fertility?
Surely, it goes against the grain of Darwinism that organisms with greater resources should have lower fertility?
Does Darwinism not apply to humans?
"Does Darwinism not apply to humans?" No, not as you define Darwinism.
Theres more going on with humans than just eating and screwing. Toys, for instance. The wealthier we are the better our toys, the more time we spend with those. Birth control for another. Mental disturbances for another. And as scott pointed out, culture. Im sure theres plenty more for this list.
Im no social scientist but i can see how some or all of these would affect the birth rate of a given society. It does seem counterintuitive on the face of it, but isnt that a hallmark of humanity?
Rather why is China so unfertile?
Interesting reflections. Your prediction seems entirely plausible. Should we however assess the weights of countries in the world economy based on PPPs? If a haircut in India costs a small fraction of a haircut in the US this surely affects the relative standard of living in the two countries, but what impact does it have on the countries’ relative economic power? (I am implicitly assuming that differences in PPPs come principally from differences in the price of tradable goods. I would make a big exception for military goods, which are morphologically tradable but politically not so: Russia has a huge revealed comparative advantage in military goods but my advocacy of free trade stop short of proposing that we should all fight all wars with Russian weapons (moreover it turns out that Ukraine has even more favourable PPPs)).
Economic power is a rather vague concept, so it's hard to say. I will says that China's PPP figures more accurately describe the current impact of China on the global economy than it's nominal GDP, especially industries such as commodities, autos and AI.
As far as military power is concerned, it does seem possible that the nominal figures are more revealing.
Important point about commodities markets that I cannot ever recall reading before. I'd never begrudge a countries living standards rising,, but it does raise costs to other buyers.
Ironically, people often claimed that China reduced US inflation, by making manufactured goods cheaper. I do recall a period around 2007-08, and then again 2011, when Chinese commodity demand did seem to raise the headline inflation rate.
Oh I definitely agree. Just an item that went the other way although who knows? Maybe fracking never would have happened without demand from China.