As a young child one of the touchpoint field trips made by youth in metro NY area is a trip to the Statue of Liberty. I have a vivid recollection of the trip and the slow ascent to the torch. As an adult riding the Circle Line (yes, I'd do tourist things like this even though I lived there), I listened to the person narrating the boat tour. Passing by the Statue of Liberty he noted that the Statue of Liberty and then also noted that the torch had been closed to tourists in 1986. Or at least that is what I heard, so after the boat ride I went to speak with him and told him that as a school kid I was up there. He gently corrected me and told me that he actually had not said 1986 he said 1916. This was Black Tom explosion, German WW1 sabotage, an explosion violent enough to cause the torch to be closed to the public thereafter. Tour narrator believed I remembered it but said as a member of the public there was no way I was actually up there. Rationally I can't genuinely believe I was up there, but it has led me to question, not my memory generally, but my memory specifically.
I really resonated with this post. I am 28, and recently reflected to my friends, "It's mind-blowing that so much has happened in my life since I was 20. And that's only one third of my life so far. Living to 80 feels like such an unnatural excess of time. Honestly, if you told me I would die upon reaching the age of 30, I wouldn't feel cheated out of time. I've already lived a full life."
Even in a single week, so much can happen. Simultaneously, a week can feel so mundane and repetitive.
"The sudden recollection of one of those deeply buried memories triggers a feeling analogous to deja vu, but different. It triggers the feeling that life is much bigger than I had thought" — I strongly associate this feeling with tripping on acid. (Hopefully the following isn't too much crazy talk.) Taking psychedelics expands your awareness and perception. When I'm tripping, I notice details in your favorite song you've listened to countless times yet somehow never noticed before. I think deeply about members of my family in ways I had never considered before: truly contemplating what life is like for them. I reflect on the path through life I've taken, and who I am, examining areas that I would never have taken the time to consider otherwise.
Overall, you get the feeling that when sober, you were going through life on autopilot, neglecting to be aware of so many important details of life. Later, when sober, this feeling reoccurs whenever I become more aware of something that otherwise I wouldn't think about. It gives me a feeling of vertigo, suddenly noticing the vast expanse of life that I'm usually blind to.
Like you say, to understand such a complex life is impossible. That's why we block out so much information when processing the world, and why psychedelics gives the feeling of expanded awareness so much, according to the standard explanation of psychedelics.
"I really resonated with this post. I am 28, and recently reflected to my friends, "It's mind-blowing that so much has happened in my life since I was 20."
I'm a bit older, but feel similar, if I am being completely honestly I will admit that I am having some difficulty coming to grips with it all. I find it all a bit mentally overwhelming at times.
Denmark scores extremely high on free markets but also has a large welfare state"
?? A "welefare state" is just transfers: Low DWL, The only DWL is the taxation and Denmark use lots of consumption taxes with low DWL. DWL comes from regulations that try to affect "pre-distribution."
Nice piece of writing. When I think about macroeconomics, I remind myself that one is trying to make generalizations about X number of transactions a day. How large is X? 5 times population? 10?
It's nice that you're putting all these things in perspective. Headline media is full of grim news and it's easy to lose sight of the incremental progress that ultimately impacts things in a positive way. Sometimes I feel a twinge of nostalgia for what I perceived as the simplicity and order of the 1990's when I was in high school and college. But if I was offered a trip back in time I wouldn't take it. Even though we now have lunatics like RFK jr. we also have real scientists who are making breakthroughs on pancreatic cancer and other diseases that used to be death sentences.
I look at what happens when countries undertake major changes in their policy regime, and I look at what economic theory predicts about the relationship between economic regimes and wealth creation.
Absolutely agree as it is the way i look at these kinds of things. As to a human life: I would suggest that if one gives their life thought and felt they to be content that I hope would be meaningful; contentment strikes me as a life goal vs happiness which like sadness can go up or down just like we might see with regard to an economy.
Beautiful post, Scott. It's always a strange experience when I read other people's reflections on their lives: I have an absolutely terrible autobiographical memory, so my childhood (and, increasingly, my young adulthood) have just faded away to nothing. You say "I recall almost nothing of that year, perhaps just one or two dozen events" about being nine years old--I remember maybe one or two dozens events about the first thirty years of my life!
True. I think I have previously referred to Brendan Greeley's critique of Econsplaining [https://www.ft.com/content/1e2584d6-65ef-46de-bfb2-28811be65600] - where economists stray into areas where complexity both allows them to find confirmation bias through selecting factors, or anecdotes, that make compelling stories, but also likely defies the reduction that they seek.
Kind of makes it tough to comment as anything I would say is incredibly shallow.
That said, I think I knew and agreed with most everything but was surprised I had never heard the phrase. "the best forecast is usually more of the same." I've spent much of my life being a contrarian and now I wonder if it was a mistake.
The complexity of economies and of impacts on economic performance is why I say that without a robust understanding of long-term economic growth, Economics cannot identify the variables relevant to analysing immigration, even just in terms of economic impact. This without taking George J. Borjas‘s point that you import people, who thus potentially impact every aspect of a polity, a society. Hence you have to start with history, not use Theory to curate what evidence to look at and how to use it.
"This also explains why there are so many false alarms, forecasts of recession that don’t pan out. People wrongly assume that a problem facing one particular sector will cause a decline in the overall economy. In a large and diversified economy, that is rarely the case."
This means that the size of the shock relative to the skickyness of prices in the sectors affected by the shock is within the Fed's inflation target.
Everyone--Thanks for the nice comments.
"Clearly, I had not completely forgotten"
As a young child one of the touchpoint field trips made by youth in metro NY area is a trip to the Statue of Liberty. I have a vivid recollection of the trip and the slow ascent to the torch. As an adult riding the Circle Line (yes, I'd do tourist things like this even though I lived there), I listened to the person narrating the boat tour. Passing by the Statue of Liberty he noted that the Statue of Liberty and then also noted that the torch had been closed to tourists in 1986. Or at least that is what I heard, so after the boat ride I went to speak with him and told him that as a school kid I was up there. He gently corrected me and told me that he actually had not said 1986 he said 1916. This was Black Tom explosion, German WW1 sabotage, an explosion violent enough to cause the torch to be closed to the public thereafter. Tour narrator believed I remembered it but said as a member of the public there was no way I was actually up there. Rationally I can't genuinely believe I was up there, but it has led me to question, not my memory generally, but my memory specifically.
I really resonated with this post. I am 28, and recently reflected to my friends, "It's mind-blowing that so much has happened in my life since I was 20. And that's only one third of my life so far. Living to 80 feels like such an unnatural excess of time. Honestly, if you told me I would die upon reaching the age of 30, I wouldn't feel cheated out of time. I've already lived a full life."
Even in a single week, so much can happen. Simultaneously, a week can feel so mundane and repetitive.
"The sudden recollection of one of those deeply buried memories triggers a feeling analogous to deja vu, but different. It triggers the feeling that life is much bigger than I had thought" — I strongly associate this feeling with tripping on acid. (Hopefully the following isn't too much crazy talk.) Taking psychedelics expands your awareness and perception. When I'm tripping, I notice details in your favorite song you've listened to countless times yet somehow never noticed before. I think deeply about members of my family in ways I had never considered before: truly contemplating what life is like for them. I reflect on the path through life I've taken, and who I am, examining areas that I would never have taken the time to consider otherwise.
Overall, you get the feeling that when sober, you were going through life on autopilot, neglecting to be aware of so many important details of life. Later, when sober, this feeling reoccurs whenever I become more aware of something that otherwise I wouldn't think about. It gives me a feeling of vertigo, suddenly noticing the vast expanse of life that I'm usually blind to.
Like you say, to understand such a complex life is impossible. That's why we block out so much information when processing the world, and why psychedelics gives the feeling of expanded awareness so much, according to the standard explanation of psychedelics.
"I really resonated with this post. I am 28, and recently reflected to my friends, "It's mind-blowing that so much has happened in my life since I was 20."
I'm a bit older, but feel similar, if I am being completely honestly I will admit that I am having some difficulty coming to grips with it all. I find it all a bit mentally overwhelming at times.
This is altogether too beautiful and wise.
Denmark scores extremely high on free markets but also has a large welfare state"
?? A "welefare state" is just transfers: Low DWL, The only DWL is the taxation and Denmark use lots of consumption taxes with low DWL. DWL comes from regulations that try to affect "pre-distribution."
I tried to come up with a fractal play on words to describe the nature of your piece, but it was self-similar to all my other jokes.
Nice piece of writing. When I think about macroeconomics, I remind myself that one is trying to make generalizations about X number of transactions a day. How large is X? 5 times population? 10?
It's nice that you're putting all these things in perspective. Headline media is full of grim news and it's easy to lose sight of the incremental progress that ultimately impacts things in a positive way. Sometimes I feel a twinge of nostalgia for what I perceived as the simplicity and order of the 1990's when I was in high school and college. But if I was offered a trip back in time I wouldn't take it. Even though we now have lunatics like RFK jr. we also have real scientists who are making breakthroughs on pancreatic cancer and other diseases that used to be death sentences.
I look at what happens when countries undertake major changes in their policy regime, and I look at what economic theory predicts about the relationship between economic regimes and wealth creation.
Absolutely agree as it is the way i look at these kinds of things. As to a human life: I would suggest that if one gives their life thought and felt they to be content that I hope would be meaningful; contentment strikes me as a life goal vs happiness which like sadness can go up or down just like we might see with regard to an economy.
Yes, the world is very complicated as are humans.
Excellent post.
Beautiful post, Scott. It's always a strange experience when I read other people's reflections on their lives: I have an absolutely terrible autobiographical memory, so my childhood (and, increasingly, my young adulthood) have just faded away to nothing. You say "I recall almost nothing of that year, perhaps just one or two dozen events" about being nine years old--I remember maybe one or two dozens events about the first thirty years of my life!
True. I think I have previously referred to Brendan Greeley's critique of Econsplaining [https://www.ft.com/content/1e2584d6-65ef-46de-bfb2-28811be65600] - where economists stray into areas where complexity both allows them to find confirmation bias through selecting factors, or anecdotes, that make compelling stories, but also likely defies the reduction that they seek.
This is too good.
Kind of makes it tough to comment as anything I would say is incredibly shallow.
That said, I think I knew and agreed with most everything but was surprised I had never heard the phrase. "the best forecast is usually more of the same." I've spent much of my life being a contrarian and now I wonder if it was a mistake.
The complexity of economies and of impacts on economic performance is why I say that without a robust understanding of long-term economic growth, Economics cannot identify the variables relevant to analysing immigration, even just in terms of economic impact. This without taking George J. Borjas‘s point that you import people, who thus potentially impact every aspect of a polity, a society. Hence you have to start with history, not use Theory to curate what evidence to look at and how to use it.
https://www.lorenzofromoz.net/p/why-we-should-stop-listening-to-economists
Great observations
To be pedantic: if you hardly see stuff away from the road, land travel is essentially ONEdimensional 🤣
LOL, of course. I'm getting senile.
"This also explains why there are so many false alarms, forecasts of recession that don’t pan out. People wrongly assume that a problem facing one particular sector will cause a decline in the overall economy. In a large and diversified economy, that is rarely the case."
This means that the size of the shock relative to the skickyness of prices in the sectors affected by the shock is within the Fed's inflation target.
I’ll add to the heaps of praise Scott, this was a great piece.
“How many great substackers have I yet to discover?” is something I think about every time I discover a new one.