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Scott Sumner's avatar

Everyone, Tyler responded and I left the following comment over at MR. Let me know if you think I misunderstood his point:

#7: "I read Scott as significantly overrating the forecasting power of the nominal in the data."

No, that is misreading me. My post wasn't considering the forecasting power of nominal data. For instance, I don't believe that changes in the money supply are a good way of forecasting inflation.

My post was a critique of the view that central banks cannot control inflation, i.e., the view that they do not affect nominal variables. I was not claiming that they have perfect control over inflation.

I can steer my car, even though I cannot predict where my car will end up 100 yards down the road if I move the steering wheel 1 inch clockwise.

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Benjamin Lyons's avatar

I love the in-depth posts. I remember reading Fischer Black and being strangely torn between his arguments being rather compelling on one hand and seeming obviously false on the other. What you've written helps clarify why.

I'm impressed by your ability to navigate the abstract arguments in this area. Have you written anything about your intellectual biography? Like what kinds of things you read and how they affected you?

Your writing contains a lot of valuable insights spread across many blog posts. Have you considered releasing a book of your best blog posts grouped by subject matter, like Bryan Caplan has done? And/or, as a supplement or follow-up to your book on alternative approaches to monetary policy, you could even think about making a pseudo-textbook that uses your blog posts to supply most of the material, grouping blog posts by their functional material and packaged with short summary essays that use data and references to allow the curious reader to flesh out the essential empirical and theoretical details of the argument.

Your argument as to the hidden role of a medium of account in a "moneyless" economy shows that there are at least some circumstances in which economists are confused as to the abstract character of their own models. Have you ever thought about relating this phenomenon to the challenge of producing models of economics where externalities are present, as per the sort of issues brought up by Carl Dahlman? It's a very different subject to monetary policy, but I'm interested in a potential generalization. Here is Dahlman's paper: https://www.jstor.org/stable/725216

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