#2 - it gets worse for Moderna as FDA announced they are refusing to review the new mRNA flu vaccine that was tested this past season. Moderna had over 40,000 enrolled in the trial using the GSK Flu vaccine as the comparator. There is some weird stuff going on at NIH and FDA regarding mRNA vaccines. I spent most of my career doing regulatory work in the pharma industry and can never remember something like this happening. I think there is something sketch going on that will eventually be uncovered.
The (Singapore) Immigration and Checkpoints Authority (ICA) publishes a number of criteria for eligibility for anyone who wishes to reside, study and work in Singapore.[3] Additionally, immigration is controlled to maintain the relative demographics of race in Singapore[how?] within the at roughly 75% ethnic Chinese, 15% Malay and 7% Indian, with a remaining 1–3% belonging to "other races".[4]---Wikipedia
The more you know about Singapore...the less you know....
Chimpanzees eat enough fallen (and thus fermented) fruit to consume appreciable ethanol, equal to two drinks daily.
"fiercely tribal primates to co-operate with strangers”
Humans cooperate with non-strangers and human propensity to reactive violence is much less than chimps. This is what made humans what we are. See Richard Wrangham's Goodness Paradox.
Regarding the prop boulder I clicked through the link and the link surely does seem legit, but I must say I have been at that show at Hollywood Studios and the boulder emulates the opening scene in the original Indiana Jones, but my recollection of this boulder is that while it looks and appears heavy, in actuality it isn't. Two people with ordinary strength can roll it back up the hill it rolled down and they likely should be worried the actor playing Indy might himself trip and be rolled? Not sure.... https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=mcafee&p=disney+boulder+indiana+jones+youtube+weight&type=E210US739G0#id=0&vid=8f1f86531a858fbecd21a1f51f1da2eb&action=click (specifically minute 3:04 to 3:20
About California, doesn't the property tax policy encourage loyalty and discourage move-ins? A long time Californian can pay taxes as if they own a $300,000 house, all while a new arrival would pay tax for the full $1.5 million.
I personally would move to California in a heartbeat but the politics scare me silly. The proposition process joined with the one party government invites pure democracy and pure democracy is mob rule.
How do libertarian minded Californians handle the insanity? Do they just assume the crazies won't do what they keep saying they want to do? And when crazy policies are put into law, Californians seem to just embrace the suck. I suppose the benefit of California's politics is it reduces demand of wanting to live there.
"How do libertarian minded Californians handle the insanity? "
I think people vastly overrate the importance of local governance on the quality of life. I completely agree that California's government is appalling bad, especially on non-social issues. (They are better than Texas on pot, abortion, right to die, etc.) The conservatives are correct that red states handle the economy more effectively. They also do a better job on homelessness and petty crime.
But even with the bad governance, the quality of life here for upper-middle class people like me is higher than anywhere else in the US. I go months without seeing a homeless person, I don't have kids in the school system, crime rates in the OC are fairly low, and the roads are good. The climate and scenery are almost unsurpassed. Forget Napa Valley, I can drive to a winery in hilly parts of north San Diego county in the middle of winter and it feels like Tuscany in September.
I absolutely agree that California offers exceptional quality of life. The personal question is the cost and whether it is "worth it". I'm trying to convince myself it is!
Ive noticed, in my little neck of the woods, what seems to be a huge increase in people running red lights(and abandoning other basic safety measures, like turn signals). Our local sherriffs office even ran an article in the local paper about it, due to so many wrecks at intersections. Its bizarre, i see it almost daily now, but before a couple years ago it was a rare occurence.
Ofc this is just my observations(well and the sherriffs), and i wouldnt go so far as to suggest this is linked to the trains in florida. Actually im wondering if anyone else has noticed something similar in their areas? I dont get out much lol, but that guys quote about people just not taking it seriously really matches the vibe i get around my area.
On the other hand, the stop and wave you on when they obviously have the right of way, even when theres no other traffic around to let you into or any other good reason as to why they would do so, is still very popular in my area. I flatly refuse such overtures. My position is, the rules of the road are simple, and if everyone just follows them we'll all get where we're going. Oddly, many people get infuriated when i dont follow their attempts at directing traffic. Go figure
In an effort to further understanding of the "alcohol/income puzzle" --- the finding that moderate and perhaps even heavy drinking appears to cause increased income --- this paper presents maximum simulated likelihood estimates of a system of limited dependent variables governing smoking and drinking patterns and income. With all else in the system held constant, moderate drinking leads to 10% greater income than drinking abstention, whereas heavy drinking does not cause lower wages than moderate drinking. Smoking is associated with larger effects on income than drinking: Single--equation estimates suggest smokers earn 8% less than non--smokers, and the smoking penalty rises to 24% after correcting for endogeneity.'
As far as #18, the "alt-right" is typically pretty sympathetic to Ukrainians, as they are white. So this item struck me as more illustrative of the fact that while the "alt-right" may influence government policy in the United States today (for example, by causing us to take in white South African refugees), we are still far from having an "alt-right" government.
As far as this having caused you to "[think] about how the alt-right decides to assign different moral worth to different ethnic groups", you're clearly trying to make the point that this would be an absurd thing to do, but this actually isn't that obvious. One could either agree that "moral worth" depends on physical facts, like one's biology, or just reject the idea of "moral worth", whatever that's supposed to mean, altogether.
"You won’t find this information at MarginalRevolution!" That made me chuckle, because I was thinking exactly the same thing! Tyler is an amazing commentator and interviewer, but I feel like he misses an important part of life (not sure whether Alex is also teetotal). Based on my current lifespan trajectory, I am gladly willing to forgo a few (5? 10?) years if it means I can continue with what scientists would describe as my current unsafe levels of drinking. Tyler wants to live forever, whereas I'm on board with your thesis that life gradually drains of meaning, no matter how healthy you are. And for those without partners/spouses, close family/friends or compelling work/hobbies - which account for many older people these days - it can already seem too long.
I may be a bit unusual in that I value wine for the taste, not the alcohol. I wish they could invent a wine that tasted good but had little or no alcohol.
Even something comparable to no alcohol beer would be acceptable. Alas . . .
I would say alcohol is an important part of the taste! But if you find no alcohol beer acceptable, you may not be that sensitive to (or fussy about) the taste. There are quite a few low alcohol (5%) white wines available, especially sauv blancs and pinot gris from Australia and NZ, and a few red (shiraz, more like 7%). I'm sure the US must make a few.
On the Post Nord stopping its mail delivery, I don't know if it's good or bad policy, but it's definitely annoying. I have to use an expensive private carrier now if I want to send anything by mail, and I can't just post it with my other mail.
National geographic had a series of articles back in the 2015 - 2018 days on the roll of fermented alcohol (basically beer) in the transition of tribal hunter gathering societies to settled city life.
One particularly fun article used the term Drunken Monkey to highlight that our primate ancestors likely evolved a taste for ethanol through the consumption of naturally fermented, calorie-rich rotting fruit. This ancient preference for fermented fruit sugars may have paved the way for the later intentional fermentation of grains.
The argument was that beer ("liquid bread" that provided vital B vitamins and calories) preceded agriculture and that beer preceded bread. The argument goes like this...
As people (like their primate ancestors) stumbled upon fermented fruit (or other such crops... my guess would be figs... grown in places like jerico 11,500 years ago and features prominently in the genesis account of the development of ag where it shows up as the leaf the figures used to "cover" themselves) gathering such wild fruits. They got a buzz consuming it. They liked it. The desire to produce it lead to settlement as well as providing the social lubricant to intermingle.
Further... as things progressed... there was a desire to build structures for tracking seasons for agriculture and tracking time. Temples to the dead and the gods as well. To get people to stick around and help build such things, they offered feasts and alcohol as a reward. Like providing beer and pizza for some friends to come by and help you move.
The basic argument is that beer was stumbled upon and it facilitated the settlement of populations long enough to develop agriculture and the lubricant to put up with strange other people (and to mate with them).
Its also interesting how much this jives with other old poems/ancient narratives...
In the Epic of Gilgamesh, Enkidu begins as a wild man who runs with gazelles and eats grass. To "civilize" him so he can enter the city of Uruk, he is visited by a woman named Shamhat (or course she was some kind of temple priestess, or harlot depending on the translation, and they have a week long marathon lasting 6 days and 7 nights... that makes him feel week in the knees and he can no longer keep up with the animals... but I digress). She doesn't give him is a lecture on civic duty... she gives him bread and beer.
From the text:
"Enkidu knew nothing about eating bread for food, and of drinking beer he had not been taught... Enkidu ate the bread until he was sated, he drank the beer, seven jugs!, and his heart grew light, his face glowed. He splashed his shaggy body with water, and rubbed himself with oil. He became a human being."
The text specifically posits that alochol consumption was the very ritual of becoming human:
The Transformation... Enkidu drinks seven jugs of beer, and the text says his "heart grew light" and his "face glowed."
The Evolutionary Break... The moment he gets party-style buzz, the wild animals (his former companions) flee from him. He has become civilized and has left the natural world (the garden if you will). He washes, oils his body, and is suddenly fit for the social cooperation required in a city.
The ocial Lubricant... The seven jugs of beer wasn't just a bender, it represents the transition from a natural state to a technological one.
Just like the Genesis account, the oldest stories in human history seem to agree: we didn't just stumble into civilization; we drank our way into it.
There is a line from Paths of Glory that I'll paraphrase: "Would you rather die by a bayonet or a machine gun?" --"A machine gun, naturally." [Because it's quicker.]
Dying in a plane crash is like dying by bayonet. Even if the actual death-injury is quicker, it's the sitting there plummeting and thinking about it for five minutes that bothers people. Give me the machine gun/train wreck any day.
I love Odds and Ends! I hope it's worth your time to keep doing it!
#2 - it gets worse for Moderna as FDA announced they are refusing to review the new mRNA flu vaccine that was tested this past season. Moderna had over 40,000 enrolled in the trial using the GSK Flu vaccine as the comparator. There is some weird stuff going on at NIH and FDA regarding mRNA vaccines. I spent most of my career doing regulatory work in the pharma industry and can never remember something like this happening. I think there is something sketch going on that will eventually be uncovered.
Great, and I have crappy lungs. Thanks RFK jr.
Speaking off immigration:
The (Singapore) Immigration and Checkpoints Authority (ICA) publishes a number of criteria for eligibility for anyone who wishes to reside, study and work in Singapore.[3] Additionally, immigration is controlled to maintain the relative demographics of race in Singapore[how?] within the at roughly 75% ethnic Chinese, 15% Malay and 7% Indian, with a remaining 1–3% belonging to "other races".[4]---Wikipedia
The more you know about Singapore...the less you know....
"Commonwealth migrants suffered appalling racism"
It was so appalling that masochists as they were, they could not stop coming.
Chimpanzees eat enough fallen (and thus fermented) fruit to consume appreciable ethanol, equal to two drinks daily.
"fiercely tribal primates to co-operate with strangers”
Humans cooperate with non-strangers and human propensity to reactive violence is much less than chimps. This is what made humans what we are. See Richard Wrangham's Goodness Paradox.
Regarding the prop boulder I clicked through the link and the link surely does seem legit, but I must say I have been at that show at Hollywood Studios and the boulder emulates the opening scene in the original Indiana Jones, but my recollection of this boulder is that while it looks and appears heavy, in actuality it isn't. Two people with ordinary strength can roll it back up the hill it rolled down and they likely should be worried the actor playing Indy might himself trip and be rolled? Not sure.... https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=mcafee&p=disney+boulder+indiana+jones+youtube+weight&type=E210US739G0#id=0&vid=8f1f86531a858fbecd21a1f51f1da2eb&action=click (specifically minute 3:04 to 3:20
About California, doesn't the property tax policy encourage loyalty and discourage move-ins? A long time Californian can pay taxes as if they own a $300,000 house, all while a new arrival would pay tax for the full $1.5 million.
I personally would move to California in a heartbeat but the politics scare me silly. The proposition process joined with the one party government invites pure democracy and pure democracy is mob rule.
How do libertarian minded Californians handle the insanity? Do they just assume the crazies won't do what they keep saying they want to do? And when crazy policies are put into law, Californians seem to just embrace the suck. I suppose the benefit of California's politics is it reduces demand of wanting to live there.
"How do libertarian minded Californians handle the insanity? "
I think people vastly overrate the importance of local governance on the quality of life. I completely agree that California's government is appalling bad, especially on non-social issues. (They are better than Texas on pot, abortion, right to die, etc.) The conservatives are correct that red states handle the economy more effectively. They also do a better job on homelessness and petty crime.
But even with the bad governance, the quality of life here for upper-middle class people like me is higher than anywhere else in the US. I go months without seeing a homeless person, I don't have kids in the school system, crime rates in the OC are fairly low, and the roads are good. The climate and scenery are almost unsurpassed. Forget Napa Valley, I can drive to a winery in hilly parts of north San Diego county in the middle of winter and it feels like Tuscany in September.
Thanks Scott,
I absolutely agree that California offers exceptional quality of life. The personal question is the cost and whether it is "worth it". I'm trying to convince myself it is!
It's a big state---just choose a good area.
they do not take it more seriously
Ive noticed, in my little neck of the woods, what seems to be a huge increase in people running red lights(and abandoning other basic safety measures, like turn signals). Our local sherriffs office even ran an article in the local paper about it, due to so many wrecks at intersections. Its bizarre, i see it almost daily now, but before a couple years ago it was a rare occurence.
Ofc this is just my observations(well and the sherriffs), and i wouldnt go so far as to suggest this is linked to the trains in florida. Actually im wondering if anyone else has noticed something similar in their areas? I dont get out much lol, but that guys quote about people just not taking it seriously really matches the vibe i get around my area.
On the other hand, the stop and wave you on when they obviously have the right of way, even when theres no other traffic around to let you into or any other good reason as to why they would do so, is still very popular in my area. I flatly refuse such overtures. My position is, the rules of the road are simple, and if everyone just follows them we'll all get where we're going. Oddly, many people get infuriated when i dont follow their attempts at directing traffic. Go figure
"My position is, the rules of the road are simple, and if everyone just follows them we'll all get where we're going."
I agree.
As to #21, Canadian economist Chris Auld has a 20 year old paper on "The Drink-Income Puzzle", https://www.researchgate.net/publication/2860011_M_Christopher_Auld
'Abstract
In an effort to further understanding of the "alcohol/income puzzle" --- the finding that moderate and perhaps even heavy drinking appears to cause increased income --- this paper presents maximum simulated likelihood estimates of a system of limited dependent variables governing smoking and drinking patterns and income. With all else in the system held constant, moderate drinking leads to 10% greater income than drinking abstention, whereas heavy drinking does not cause lower wages than moderate drinking. Smoking is associated with larger effects on income than drinking: Single--equation estimates suggest smokers earn 8% less than non--smokers, and the smoking penalty rises to 24% after correcting for endogeneity.'
Andrew Gelman would have a field day with this one.
That was my reaction too.
As far as #18, the "alt-right" is typically pretty sympathetic to Ukrainians, as they are white. So this item struck me as more illustrative of the fact that while the "alt-right" may influence government policy in the United States today (for example, by causing us to take in white South African refugees), we are still far from having an "alt-right" government.
As far as this having caused you to "[think] about how the alt-right decides to assign different moral worth to different ethnic groups", you're clearly trying to make the point that this would be an absurd thing to do, but this actually isn't that obvious. One could either agree that "moral worth" depends on physical facts, like one's biology, or just reject the idea of "moral worth", whatever that's supposed to mean, altogether.
"You won’t find this information at MarginalRevolution!" That made me chuckle, because I was thinking exactly the same thing! Tyler is an amazing commentator and interviewer, but I feel like he misses an important part of life (not sure whether Alex is also teetotal). Based on my current lifespan trajectory, I am gladly willing to forgo a few (5? 10?) years if it means I can continue with what scientists would describe as my current unsafe levels of drinking. Tyler wants to live forever, whereas I'm on board with your thesis that life gradually drains of meaning, no matter how healthy you are. And for those without partners/spouses, close family/friends or compelling work/hobbies - which account for many older people these days - it can already seem too long.
I may be a bit unusual in that I value wine for the taste, not the alcohol. I wish they could invent a wine that tasted good but had little or no alcohol.
Even something comparable to no alcohol beer would be acceptable. Alas . . .
I would say alcohol is an important part of the taste! But if you find no alcohol beer acceptable, you may not be that sensitive to (or fussy about) the taste. There are quite a few low alcohol (5%) white wines available, especially sauv blancs and pinot gris from Australia and NZ, and a few red (shiraz, more like 7%). I'm sure the US must make a few.
On the Post Nord stopping its mail delivery, I don't know if it's good or bad policy, but it's definitely annoying. I have to use an expensive private carrier now if I want to send anything by mail, and I can't just post it with my other mail.
On 21..
National geographic had a series of articles back in the 2015 - 2018 days on the roll of fermented alcohol (basically beer) in the transition of tribal hunter gathering societies to settled city life.
One particularly fun article used the term Drunken Monkey to highlight that our primate ancestors likely evolved a taste for ethanol through the consumption of naturally fermented, calorie-rich rotting fruit. This ancient preference for fermented fruit sugars may have paved the way for the later intentional fermentation of grains.
The argument was that beer ("liquid bread" that provided vital B vitamins and calories) preceded agriculture and that beer preceded bread. The argument goes like this...
As people (like their primate ancestors) stumbled upon fermented fruit (or other such crops... my guess would be figs... grown in places like jerico 11,500 years ago and features prominently in the genesis account of the development of ag where it shows up as the leaf the figures used to "cover" themselves) gathering such wild fruits. They got a buzz consuming it. They liked it. The desire to produce it lead to settlement as well as providing the social lubricant to intermingle.
Further... as things progressed... there was a desire to build structures for tracking seasons for agriculture and tracking time. Temples to the dead and the gods as well. To get people to stick around and help build such things, they offered feasts and alcohol as a reward. Like providing beer and pizza for some friends to come by and help you move.
The basic argument is that beer was stumbled upon and it facilitated the settlement of populations long enough to develop agriculture and the lubricant to put up with strange other people (and to mate with them).
Its also interesting how much this jives with other old poems/ancient narratives...
In the Epic of Gilgamesh, Enkidu begins as a wild man who runs with gazelles and eats grass. To "civilize" him so he can enter the city of Uruk, he is visited by a woman named Shamhat (or course she was some kind of temple priestess, or harlot depending on the translation, and they have a week long marathon lasting 6 days and 7 nights... that makes him feel week in the knees and he can no longer keep up with the animals... but I digress). She doesn't give him is a lecture on civic duty... she gives him bread and beer.
From the text:
"Enkidu knew nothing about eating bread for food, and of drinking beer he had not been taught... Enkidu ate the bread until he was sated, he drank the beer, seven jugs!, and his heart grew light, his face glowed. He splashed his shaggy body with water, and rubbed himself with oil. He became a human being."
The text specifically posits that alochol consumption was the very ritual of becoming human:
The Transformation... Enkidu drinks seven jugs of beer, and the text says his "heart grew light" and his "face glowed."
The Evolutionary Break... The moment he gets party-style buzz, the wild animals (his former companions) flee from him. He has become civilized and has left the natural world (the garden if you will). He washes, oils his body, and is suddenly fit for the social cooperation required in a city.
The ocial Lubricant... The seven jugs of beer wasn't just a bender, it represents the transition from a natural state to a technological one.
Just like the Genesis account, the oldest stories in human history seem to agree: we didn't just stumble into civilization; we drank our way into it.
Thanks. Very interesting examples.
go Morocco go!
There is a line from Paths of Glory that I'll paraphrase: "Would you rather die by a bayonet or a machine gun?" --"A machine gun, naturally." [Because it's quicker.]
Dying in a plane crash is like dying by bayonet. Even if the actual death-injury is quicker, it's the sitting there plummeting and thinking about it for five minutes that bothers people. Give me the machine gun/train wreck any day.
Why is this post like 90% links to The Economist?
I link to the best.